The day of the Newt

The Republican nomination

Left for dead in the summer, Newt Gingrich is now leading the Republican pack

  GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA

“GOD”, explains Newt Gingrich, in response to a question about his health, “wanted me to be a bear, not a gazelle.” And yet after months of ursine shuffling and growling from the rear of the Republican presidential field, he has sprung to the front ranks, barely four weeks before the first primaries. Mr Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives, now leads Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts and his closest rival, by several percentage points in most national polls. He is the front-runner in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida, the first, third and fourth states to vote, and appears to be trimming Mr Romney’s lead in New Hampshire, the second. Mr Romney has been a far steadier force in the race, seeing off a parade of candidates who have soared in the polls only to fall back again. But he has never built a commanding lead—and Mr Gingrich suddenly finds himself the candidate best positioned to claim the “anyone-but-Mitt” mantle.


It helps that the previous claimant, Herman Cain, a pizza mogul and radio host, is seeing his support wither, thanks to a series of allegations about his sex life. No fewer than four women have accused him of sexual harassment. This week another woman claimed to have had a 13-year affair with him. Mr Cain admitted to knowing his accuser, but insisted that their friendship was entirely platonic. His lawyer, however, issued a peculiar non-denial that focused instead on his client’s right to privacy in the bedroom. The chairman of his campaign in Iowa helpfully noted that Bill Clinton had overcome similar obstacles to claim his party’s nomination. Mr Cain was said to be asking big donors whether he should continue his campaign, but publicly proclaimed, “9-9-9! We’re doing fine”—a reference to his signature tax-reform plan.
Whether Mr Cain officially drops out or simply continues to fade in the polls, Mr Gingrich is the likely beneficiary. The pair have even mused about picking one another as running-mates. They are both from Georgia, and have similar appeal in the Republicans’ southern heartland. The only other red-blooded southern conservative in the race, Rick Perry, the governor of Texas, has already flared and fizzled. In our latest Economist/YouGov poll, Mr Gingrich’s lead over Mr Romney nationally grows from eight to 13 points when Mr Cain is excluded.
Meanwhile, Mr Romney’s support seems not only to have reached a plateau, but to be half-hearted. He has never topped 26% in the “poll of polls” compiled by RealClearPolitics, a leading website. His backers are not as enthusiastic about their man as Mr Gingrich’s are, according to Gallup, another pollster. Many on the right believe his disavowal of past positions on health care, abortion and climate change, among other subjects, is simply strategic; they fear he would revert to relatively liberal form if elected. If a consensus emerges that Mr Gingrich is in the best position to beat Mr Romney, he is likely to win over many more such voters.

On the face of things, Mr Gingrich makes an unlikely champion for the Republican right. Like Mr Romney, he has said many things that are now anathema to the base: that government should oblige people to buy health insurance, for example, or that it should do something about global warming. Moreover, he is on his third wife, and has admitted being unfaithful to the previous two—a history that would normally be a grave handicap with Christian voters, in particular. His saving grace, however, is that he came to national attention in the 1990s as the scourge of Mr Clinton, making him a hero to the right. As the mastermind of the Republican takeover of the House in 1994, and a cheerleader for Mr Clinton’s impeachment, his partisan credentials are beyond doubt.
On the campaign trail Mr Gingrich wisely concentrates on the economy. His main charge against Barack Obama is that he is too hostile to business, allowing red-tape to proliferate and deterring investment with talk of tax increases. Many of Mr Gingrich’s remedies sound oddly pencil-headed: using credit-card companies’ technology to cut down on benefit fraud, for example, or applying “lean six-sigma principles” to improve bureaucrats’ efficiency. But he draws nods and murmurs of approval from the working-class crowd at Tommy’s Country Ham House, a greasy spoon in Greenville, South Carolina when he labels Mr Obama the “food-stamp president”, intent on expanding government, and himself the “paycheck president”, intent on expanding employment. A line about exploiting America’s own oil instead of holding hands with the king of Saudi Arabia earns hearty applause.
When asked about his moral underpinnings, Mr Gingrich says that it is impossible to find fulfilment without submitting to God’s mercy. He makes vague references to “values” and denounces as anti-Christian bigots judges who obstruct prayer in schools. But he does not attempt to paint himself as a fearless culture warrior, and makes no mention of the bugbears of the religious right, abortion and gay marriage.

Explore our interactive map and guide to the race for the Republican candidacy

Even if Mr Gingrich is able to win over wavering “values voters”, he faces a daunting challenge in terms of organisation. As recently as June his campaign came close to collapse, when many of his senior aides quit. He lags far behind Mr Romney in fund-raising, and has fewer staff and offices. He argues that he has found a new way to campaign on a shoestring, thanks to eager volunteers and free airtime in the many debates and candidates’ forums. John McCain, the Republican nominee in 2008, suffered similar setbacks before his eventual triumph.
But Mr Gingrich lacks Mr McCain’s biggest selling point—that he is the candidate best positioned to win the general election. Our poll shows Mr Gingrich running eight points behind Mr Obama, twice Mr Romney’s shortfall. The memory of his battles with Mr Clinton are as much a turn-off for the general electorate as they are a turn-on for primary voters. He has not been in the lead long enough to attract much criticism from his rivals, but it is surely coming. The drawn-out primary schedule, meanwhile, leaves plenty of time to dent his momentum. The Republican party often flirts with more inspiring candidates before plumping for the most electable one. Mr Gingrich will need both the nimbleness of a gazelle and the strength of a bear to overturn that habit.